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National Real Estate Brief
Oct 28, 2026
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0:00
One housing report says sales are rising. Another says fewer buyers are signing contracts. And this morning, fresh government numbers showed that newly built homes aren't escaping the slowdown.
0:13
All three reports can be right. The problem is that they measure different parts of housing activity, and when mortgage rates are above seven percent, those differences matter a lot.
0:25
You're listening to NREB Market Pulse from National Real Estate Brief. It's Tuesday, October twenty-seventh, twenty twenty-six.
0:34
For our first episode, here's the question: Are buyers finally gaining the advantage, or is the market getting harder for everyone? Start with the number that initially looked encouraging.
0:46
On October thirteenth, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales increased one point five percent in September. The annualized pace reached three point nine nine million sales.
0:59
That annualized figure isn't the number of homes sold during September. It's what a full year would look like if the month's seasonally adjusted pace continued.
1:09
But sales were still down two point two percent from a year earlier, and the association's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said August and September were the two slowest months for home sales this year.
1:22
A modest monthly gain then, hardly a surge. Then, one week later came the other half of the story. Pending home sales dropped seven point three percent in September compared with August.
1:35
They were down eleven point three percent from a year earlier. Contracts declined in every major region of the country. Why the enormous difference?
1:46
Existing home sales count closed transactions, often agreed to weeks earlier. Pending sales track newly signed contracts. They're an early clue about what might close over the next month or two.
1:59
September's closings reflect earlier deals. September's pending numbers tell us fewer new deals entered the pipeline. That doesn't mean future closings will fall by exactly seven point three percent.
2:12
Timing varies, and some contracts fail. But September's gain in completed sales is not proof of a lasting recovery. The regional figures make the contrast even more striking.
2:25
In the South, completed sales rose two point eight percent in September, while pending contracts fell eight point two percent.
2:33
In the West, completed sales also rose two point eight percent, but pending sales fell nine point two percent. Same region, same month, but a different picture when you compare completed sales with new contracts.
2:47
And there's another complication. Inventory is improving, but affordability isn't necessarily improving with it. The association counted one point six million existing homes available for sale at the end of September.
3:02
That's four point six percent more than a year earlier, representing four point eight months of supply at the current sales pace.
3:10
Homes were spending a median of thirty-three days on the market, up from thirty-one in August. Those numbers point towards somewhat more room to negotiate.
3:20
Yet the median existing home sale price was still four hundred seventeen thousand five hundred dollars, one point three percent higher than a year ago.
3:30
More choice for buyers does not automatically mean cheaper ownership. To understand why, look at the mortgage.
3:38
Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey, released October twenty-second, put the average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate at seven point three two percent. It had eased slightly from seven point four percent the previous week.
3:51
But one year earlier, the average was six point one nine percent. That gap sounds small until you turn it into a monthly payment. Take a hypothetical four hundred thousand dollar home with twenty percent down.
4:06
The loan is three hundred twenty thousand dollars. At six point one nine percent, principal and interest would be roughly one thousand nine hundred fifty-eight dollars a month.
4:16
At seven point three two percent, it's about two thousand one hundred ninety-eight. That's approximately two hundred forty dollars more every month for the same home and the same loan amount.
4:28
Nearly twenty-nine hundred dollars more per year before property taxes, insurance, or association fees. And remember, the Freddie Mac survey describes a particular type of well-qualified conventional borrower.
4:43
An actual buyer's quote can differ. This is why the phrase, "Buyers have more leverage," needs some context. They may have more leverage over a seller. They don't necessarily have more leverage over the cost of money.
4:57
Mortgage applications support that picture.
5:00
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications fell seven percent in the week ending October sixteenth and were eighteen percent below the same period a year earlier.
5:11
Even a modest weekly dip in quoted rates hadn't brought those buyers back. That brings us to today's release and to the competitor that agents sometimes underestimate.
5:22
The Census Bureau reported this morning that new single-family home sales ran at an annualized pace of six hundred seventy-six thousand in September, roughly flat compared with August and an estimated five point three percent below a year earlier.
5:38
The Bureau's estimates have wide margins of error, so we shouldn't pretend a reported monthly decline of six-tenths of one percent tells us where the market is headed. But another figure is worth watching.
5:50
Builders had an estimated eight point four months of new home supply available. Builders aren't sitting around hoping every buyer suddenly becomes comfortable with seven percent mortgages.
6:02
An October survey by the National Association of Home Builders found that forty-three percent of builders had cut prices. The average reported reduction was six percent. Sixty-five percent were using sales incentives.
6:15
And the organization's Builder Confidence Index fell to twenty-nine, its lowest reading since June of twenty twelve. That looks like an industry trying hard to move inventory.
6:27
And the most important part of the builder story isn't always the price on the listing, it's the monthly payment. Consider a buyer choosing between a resale and a newly built home.
6:38
A builder may be able to offer closing cost assistance or help pay for a mortgage rate buydown, sometimes through a preferred lender.
6:45
That can change the amount the buyer needs at closing or the payment they see on a worksheet. An existing home seller might be able to offer concessions, too, subject to loan program and lender limits.
6:57
But unlike a builder, that seller usually isn't operating a sales operation with a standing incentive budget.
7:04
For a buyer, the right question isn't simply which property is listed for less, it's which offer produces the better total deal given the loan terms, fees, property, and how long they plan to own it.
7:18
A listing agent needs to know those nearby incentives, not just the latest resale comps. There is one statistic in today's release that could easily be misread.
7:28
The median new home sales price was about four hundred thousand dollars. The median price for all existing home sales in September was about four hundred seventeen thousand dollars.
7:39
Does that mean new homes are cheaper now? Not necessarily. New home figures cover single family houses, and the Census Bureau counts them when a contract is signed or a deposit accepted, not at closing.
7:52
The existing home median includes condos and other types. The properties aren't matched by location, size, or features. Comparing these medians doesn't tell you which home is the better buy.
8:04
A careful buyer comparison has to happen at the neighborhood and property level. Now, what should professionals actually do with all of this?
8:14
For sellers, don't use a national price increase to justify a local asking price buyers no longer support. A listing competes with available homes, price reductions, and builder offers nearby.
8:27
Show the buyer's likely monthly cost at the current rate. Show what nearby new construction is offering. And pay attention to how long comparable properties have been sitting, not just what the last closed sale fetched.
8:41
If you're working with buyers, a lower asking price can be valuable, but so can the structure of the financing.
8:47
Have the lender compare a price reduction against a seller credit or rate buydown using the same assumptions. A temporary buydown and a permanent rate reduction are very different things.
8:59
The lowest payment in year one is not always the lowest cost over the life of the loan. Investors shouldn't mistake softer demand for automatic bargains.
9:09
The association says distressed properties accounted for just two percent of September sales. There's no nationwide flood of forced selling in that figure.
9:19
The investor's advantage may be patience and careful underwriting, not aggressive assumptions about price declines.
9:26
Run the numbers with current borrowing costs, realistic rents, insurance, taxes, maintenance, and vacancy. If a property only works because rates supposedly fall next spring, that's a bet, not a margin of safety.
9:41
Local markets won't behave alike. The West's pending sales decline was more than twice the Northeast's. National data can't price a house on your street. There's also the Federal Reserve to consider.
9:54
At its September meeting, the Fed raised its short-term policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the target range to three and three quarters to four percent.
10:04
Its next meeting is underway today and concludes tomorrow. The Fed doesn't set thirty-year mortgage rates directly. Those reflect longer term borrowing markets and expectations about inflation and economic conditions.
10:18
And inflation remains a complication. September's Consumer Price Index rose three point seven percent over twelve months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
10:28
The Fed's announcement tomorrow will matter, but don't assume a quarter point policy move creates an identical change in mortgage quotes.
10:37
Markets may already have anticipated it or may react more strongly to what officials say about the months ahead. For the next several weeks, three things deserve particular attention.
10:48
First, whether mortgage rates stabilize enough for buyers to make plans without watching their purchasing power change from week to week. Second, whether the drop in signed contracts begins to reverse.
11:01
The next monthly pending sales report will tell us more about whether September was a temporary setback or part of a longer freeze. And third, how aggressively builders keep competing on price and financing.
11:15
A builder's incentive can become a real benchmark for the resale home down the road. Here's the bottom line. The September increase in completed home sales wasn't imaginary.
11:27
Neither was the sharp drop in pending contracts. More inventory is giving buyers some choices, while higher mortgage costs are making those choices harder to afford.
11:38
And the builders are responding with discounts and incentives because they face the same buyer hesitation. This is a market where negotiating power and purchasing power are moving in different directions.
11:51
That may be the most useful distinction to take into your next client conversation. Thanks for listening to the first episode of NREB Market Pulse from National Real Estate Brief.
12:03
We'll keep following the numbers, checking the claims, and connecting the headlines to the decisions people actually make in real estate. We'll see you next time.
NREB Market Pulse
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